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{
  "away": "TSV Hartberg",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0482,
  "explanation": "Away win: 14% against a market price of 9% (+4.8%).\nExpected goals Rapid Vienna 1.73 – 1.20 TSV Hartberg.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 26% (uncertainty ±5.1%), so it carries 37% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) takes 2.1 pts from away win.\nRapid Vienna's attack (1.07× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nRapid Vienna's defence (0.95× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.8% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1561945,
  "home": "Rapid Vienna",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T17:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 218,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.0899,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-218-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "9.05",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.1381,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.8% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}