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{
  "away": "Clermont Foot",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0354,
  "explanation": "Home win: 41% against a market price of 44% (-3.5%).\nExpected goals Laval 1.10 – 1.17 Clermont Foot.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 33% (uncertainty ±6.2%), so it carries 29% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nLaval's attack (0.89× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+10% goals at home) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nLaval's defence (1.10× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nClermont Foot's attack (0.91× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.5%).",
  "fixture": 1552498,
  "home": "Laval",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligue 2",
  "league_api_id": 62,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4446,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-62-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.11",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4092,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}