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{
  "away": "PAU",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0161,
  "explanation": "Home win: 44% against a market price of 45% (-1.6%).\nExpected goals Guingamp 1.42 – 1.30 PAU.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±6.7%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nPAU's defence (1.13× the league rate against) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+10% goals at home) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nGuingamp's defence (1.06× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.6%).",
  "fixture": 1552497,
  "home": "Guingamp",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligue 2",
  "league_api_id": 62,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4512,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-62-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.08",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4351,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}