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{
  "away": "Vasas",
  "bookmakers": 9,
  "edge": -0.0116,
  "explanation": "Home win: 41% against a market price of 42% (-1.2%).\nExpected goals MTK Budapest 1.66 – 1.77 Vasas.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 36% (uncertainty ±9.2%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nMTK Budapest's defence (1.13× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nVasas's attack (1.08× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nMTK Budapest's attack (1.04× the league rate) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.2%).",
  "fixture": 1560257,
  "home": "MTK Budapest",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "NB I",
  "league_api_id": 271,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4171,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-271-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.21",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4055,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}