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{
  "away": "Cusco",
  "bookmakers": 9,
  "edge": -0.0078,
  "explanation": "Home win: 52% against a market price of 53% (-0.8%).\nExpected goals Sport Huancayo 1.72 – 1.21 Cusco.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±9.4%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+51% goals at home) adds 3.2 pts to home win.\nSport Huancayo's defence (1.05× the league rate against) takes 0.3 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.8%).",
  "fixture": 1549516,
  "home": "Sport Huancayo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 281,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5308,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-281-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.79",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.523,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}