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Entry #741: pick published

Hash verified

AD Ceuta FC v Oviedo: Away win 39% @ 2.29 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:02:59.398981+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 9a1205c212e9336ff63495bec7b38e06c1b9e85227193217548fca105a7f5ffc
Stored hash: f4b7466df3324e5b46f151224d97d7473c4a4078a461813cfcebff545f00d85f
Recomputed: f4b7466df3324e5b46f151224d97d7473c4a4078a461813cfcebff545f00d85f

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Oviedo",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0231,
  "explanation": "Away win: 39% against a market price of 41% (-2.3%).\nExpected goals AD Ceuta FC 1.14 – 1.10 Oviedo.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 35% (uncertainty ±6.1%), so it carries 37% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) takes 2.1 pts from away win.\nAD Ceuta FC's defence (1.12× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to away win.\nOviedo's defence (0.93× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nAD Ceuta FC's attack (0.94× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.3%).",
  "fixture": 1569972,
  "home": "AD Ceuta FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Segunda División",
  "league_api_id": 141,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4132,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-141-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.29",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3901,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.3%)",
  "trigger": "event: referee",
  "type": "pick"
}

#740 #742

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