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{
  "away": "Colorado Rapids",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0125,
  "explanation": "Home win: 49% against a market price of 50% (-1.3%).\nExpected goals Portland Timbers 1.88 – 1.48 Colorado Rapids.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 47% (uncertainty ±6.3%), so it carries 38% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 3.6 pts to home win.\nColorado Rapids's attack (0.94× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nPortland Timbers's defence (1.06× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.3%).",
  "fixture": 1490554,
  "home": "Portland Timbers",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T02:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Major League Soccer",
  "league_api_id": 253,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4995,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-253-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.91",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.487,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}