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Entry #757: pick published

Hash verified

Cruz Azul v FC Juarez: Home win 71% @ 1.28 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:15:08.253577+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 1bd04810e9c1bdd9dda3a82830ed0176745ea496dd37acde62a673148f8399b5
Stored hash: 8d712749af08134d557425df80256e9f89ab3c0ea0a544ef919afda61b7689e2
Recomputed: 8d712749af08134d557425df80256e9f89ab3c0ea0a544ef919afda61b7689e2

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "FC Juarez",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0365,
  "explanation": "Home win: 71% against a market price of 75% (-3.6%).\nExpected goals Cruz Azul 2.09 – 1.06 FC Juarez.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 59% (uncertainty ±6.6%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+32% goals at home) adds 3.1 pts to home win.\nCruz Azul's attack (1.17× the league rate) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nFC Juarez's defence (1.16× the league rate against) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nCruz Azul's defence (0.92× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.6%).",
  "fixture": 1551000,
  "home": "Cruz Azul",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T03:10:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga MX",
  "league_api_id": 262,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7496,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-262-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.28",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.7131,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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