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{
  "away": "Vissel Kobe",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.025,
  "explanation": "Away win: 39% against a market price of 37% (+2.5%).\nExpected goals Fagiano Okayama 1.07 – 1.30 Vissel Kobe.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±5.5%), so it carries 50% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRest days (Fagiano Okayama 8, Vissel Kobe 4) adds 1.8 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) takes 1.7 pts from away win.\nVissel Kobe's defence (0.90× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to away win.\nVissel Kobe's attack (1.06× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.5%).",
  "fixture": 1556097,
  "home": "Fagiano Okayama",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T04:55:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3691,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.55",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3941,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}