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Entry #759: pick published

Hash verified

Daejeon Citizen v Gwangju FC: Draw 24% @ 4.78 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:15:13.212595+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: aea276778037c904eae17dfa2422bd81581cfc14562d0769ce946b2164839283
Stored hash: c2504daff507646916827995dd1e9f74d5889397c601a239ebbfe1009a908b99
Recomputed: c2504daff507646916827995dd1e9f74d5889397c601a239ebbfe1009a908b99

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Gwangju FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0547,
  "explanation": "Draw: 24% against a market price of 19% (+5.5%).\nExpected goals Daejeon Citizen 1.33 – 0.88 Gwangju FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 31% (uncertainty ±2.9%), so it carries 47% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nGwangju FC's defence (1.13× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from draw.\nDaejeon Citizen's attack (1.10× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from draw.\nHome advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) takes 0.5 pts from draw.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.5% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1507084,
  "home": "Daejeon Citizen",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T05:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "K League 1",
  "league_api_id": 292,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1875,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-292-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "4.78",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2422,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "draw",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 5.5% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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