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Entry #760: pick published

Hash verified

Ska-khabarovsk v Volga Ulyanovsk: Home win 40% @ 2.36 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:15:14.850700+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: c2504daff507646916827995dd1e9f74d5889397c601a239ebbfe1009a908b99
Stored hash: d667f490dc53c0e525c7e7e740932d132f7c112ddd1d3c1d4d70e5881bd2bf31
Recomputed: d667f490dc53c0e525c7e7e740932d132f7c112ddd1d3c1d4d70e5881bd2bf31

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0023,
  "explanation": "Home win: 40% against a market price of 40% (-0.2%).\nExpected goals Ska-khabarovsk 1.17 – 0.97 Volga Ulyanovsk.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±6.6%), so it carries 37% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 2.6 pts to home win.\nSka-khabarovsk's defence (1.14× the league rate against) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nVolga Ulyanovsk's defence (1.08× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.2%).",
  "fixture": 1577551,
  "home": "Ska-khabarovsk",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T05:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "First League",
  "league_api_id": 236,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4034,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-236-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.36",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4011,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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