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Entry #761: pick published

Hash verified

Jeonbuk Motors v Jeju United FC: Away win 29% @ 3.78 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:15:16.834034+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: d667f490dc53c0e525c7e7e740932d132f7c112ddd1d3c1d4d70e5881bd2bf31
Stored hash: 1fa09d26d7cd626124c94a67a0be5acf62ef3d3050b44ed2d14c5da8afd7a381
Recomputed: 1fa09d26d7cd626124c94a67a0be5acf62ef3d3050b44ed2d14c5da8afd7a381

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Jeju United FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0439,
  "explanation": "Away win: 29% against a market price of 24% (+4.4%).\nExpected goals Jeonbuk Motors 0.99 – 0.94 Jeju United FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 33% (uncertainty ±4.5%), so it carries 50% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRest days (Jeonbuk Motors 4, Jeju United FC 8) adds 2.0 pts to away win.\nJeonbuk Motors's defence (0.92× the league rate against) takes 1.3 pts from away win.\nJeju United FC's attack (0.95× the league rate) takes 0.8 pts from away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.4% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1507085,
  "home": "Jeonbuk Motors",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T05:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "K League 1",
  "league_api_id": 292,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2415,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-292-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "3.78",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2853,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.4% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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