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{
  "away": "Avispa Fukuoka",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0052,
  "explanation": "Home win: 52% against a market price of 52% (+0.5%).\nExpected goals Machida Zelvia 1.55 – 0.84 Avispa Fukuoka.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 54% (uncertainty ±6.8%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nMachida Zelvia's attack (1.12× the league rate) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nRest days (Machida Zelvia 3, Avispa Fukuoka 8) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nAvispa Fukuoka's attack (0.89× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.5%).",
  "fixture": 1556095,
  "home": "Machida Zelvia",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T07:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.519,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.84",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5241,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}