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Entry #755: pick published

Hash verified

San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC: Home win 30% @ 3.56 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:15:01.343355+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: ece95915bab279129f30bb150e728d066271c1f8fd03d258f8674cfec83c6cd5
Stored hash: e233534ab643ee3723c6b359b97636cc0021f404092490613e033bb9c158dd35
Recomputed: e233534ab643ee3723c6b359b97636cc0021f404092490613e033bb9c158dd35

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Nashville SC",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": 0.0388,
  "explanation": "Home win: 30% against a market price of 26% (+3.9%).\nExpected goals San Jose Earthquakes 1.65 – 1.74 Nashville SC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±4.8%), so it carries 38% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 3.1 pts to home win.\nNashville SC's defence (0.86× the league rate against) takes 2.2 pts from home win.\nNashville SC's attack (1.09× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nSan Jose Earthquakes's defence (1.04× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.9% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1490553,
  "home": "San Jose Earthquakes",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T02:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Major League Soccer",
  "league_api_id": 253,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2593,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-253-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "3.56",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2982,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.9% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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