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Entry #754: pick published

Hash verified

Los Angeles Galaxy v San Diego: Home win 42% @ 2.24 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:14:58.398683+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 626496b937f67427a6f5d96f3e3db83432b3751fda9d337bd00f10d604f7dea9
Stored hash: ece95915bab279129f30bb150e728d066271c1f8fd03d258f8674cfec83c6cd5
Recomputed: ece95915bab279129f30bb150e728d066271c1f8fd03d258f8674cfec83c6cd5

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "San Diego",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": 0.002,
  "explanation": "Home win: 42% against a market price of 42% (+0.2%).\nExpected goals Los Angeles Galaxy 1.85 – 1.66 San Diego.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±7.2%), so it carries 35% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 3.2 pts to home win.\nSan Diego's attack (1.07× the league rate) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nLos Angeles Galaxy's defence (1.04× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.2%).",
  "fixture": 1490551,
  "home": "Los Angeles Galaxy",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T02:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Major League Soccer",
  "league_api_id": 253,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4219,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-253-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.24",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4239,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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