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Entry #753: pick published

Hash verified

Seattle Sounders v CF Montreal: Home win 67% @ 1.36 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:14:55.377107+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 33d903d1d6ada5b843e2013a673cc8e20321b8ce0f4a9d20331dc311fc7313f6
Stored hash: 626496b937f67427a6f5d96f3e3db83432b3751fda9d337bd00f10d604f7dea9
Recomputed: 626496b937f67427a6f5d96f3e3db83432b3751fda9d337bd00f10d604f7dea9

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "CF Montreal",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0356,
  "explanation": "Home win: 67% against a market price of 71% (-3.6%).\nExpected goals Seattle Sounders 2.05 – 1.22 CF Montreal.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 56% (uncertainty ±7.3%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 2.7 pts to home win.\nCF Montreal's defence (1.10× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nCF Montreal's attack (0.86× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nSeattle Sounders's defence (0.91× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.6%).",
  "fixture": 1490552,
  "home": "Seattle Sounders",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T02:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Major League Soccer",
  "league_api_id": 253,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7067,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-253-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.36",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6712,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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