Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka prediction

07:00

Sun 1 Nov, 07:00 Machida GION Stadium

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 76%Books 76% Best odds 1.27 (Pinnacle)

Match result: no bet

Home win

55%

Bookmakers 54%

Draw

24%

Bookmakers 25%

Away win

21%

Bookmakers 21%

Us 55%Bookmakers 54% Fair price Uncertainty ±1.9%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 55% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +0.7% alone is not enough).

Home win: 55% against a market price of 54% (+0.7%).

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Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka preview

Machida Zelvia host Gamba Osaka in the J1 League on Sunday 1 November at 07:00 at Machida GION Stadium.

Our model gives Machida Zelvia 55%, the draw 24% and Gamba Osaka 21%; the bookmakers' prices said 54%, 25% and 21%.

Machida Zelvia have 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats from their last 5 (10 scored, 0 conceded).

Gamba Osaka have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 (10 scored, 7 conceded).

In their last 2 meetings Machida Zelvia won 2, Gamba Osaka won 0 and 0 were drawn, with 2.5 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 76%.

More J1 League predictions

All J1 League matches

Sat 31 Oct, 05:00 Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse Kyoto Sanga win 42% @ 2.70
Sat 31 Oct, 05:00 Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 65% @ 1.48
Sat 31 Oct, 05:00 Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo FC Tokyo win 47% @ 2.05
Sat 31 Oct, 06:00 Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka Kashima win 56% @ 1.76
Sat 31 Oct, 06:00 Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus Vissel Kobe win 52% @ 2.07
Sat 31 Oct, 07:00 Kashiwa Reysol vs Urawa Kashiwa Reysol win 49% @ 2.12

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Machida Zelvia

WDWWW

29 Oct · A v Shanghai Shenhua 1–0 (xG 1.31–1.55)
24 Oct · A v Vissel Kobe 0–0 (xG 2.04–1.32)
21 Oct · A v Shimizu S-pulse 5–0 (xG 3.87–0.21)
18 Oct · H v Avispa Fukuoka 3–0 (xG 1.72–0.76)
15 Oct · A v Tampines Rovers 1–0 (xG 2.70–0.14)

Gamba Osaka

DDWDW

28 Oct · H v Buriram United 1–1 (xG 3.84–0.68)
24 Oct · H v Kyoto Sanga 2–2 (xG 1.44–1.35)
21 Oct · A v Avispa Fukuoka 2–1 (xG 0.60–0.76)
17 Oct · A v Shimizu S-pulse 2–2 (xG 1.23–0.77)
13 Oct · A v Newcastle Jets 3–1 (xG 2.01–0.80)

Head-to-head

Machida Zelvia 2 · draws 0 · Gamba Osaka 0, 2.5 goals a game

20 Aug 2025 · Machida Zelvia 3–1 Gamba Osaka (J1 League)
2 Apr 2025 · Gamba Osaka 0–1 Machida Zelvia (J1 League)