V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy prediction
Sun 1 Nov, 05:00
Peace Stadium
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 3.5Under 3.5 goalsUs 78%Books 78% Best odds 1.26 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
42%
Bookmakers 39%
Draw
28%
Bookmakers 29%
Away win
29%
Bookmakers 32%
Us 42%Bookmakers 39%
Fair price
Uncertainty ±2.4%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 42% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +3.0% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 42% against a market price of 39% (+3.0%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
Join free to open themAlready a member? Sign in
V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy preview
V-varen Nagasaki host Tokyo Verdy in the J1 League on Sunday 1 November at 05:00 at Peace Stadium.
Our model gives V-varen Nagasaki 42%, the draw 28% and Tokyo Verdy 29%; the bookmakers' prices said 39%, 29% and 32%.
V-varen Nagasaki have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 (6 scored, 5 conceded).
Tokyo Verdy have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 (6 scored, 12 conceded).
Another call we like: Under 3.5 goals (Goals O/U 3.5) at 78%.
More J1 League predictions
All J1 League matches- Sat 31 Oct, 05:00 Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse Kyoto Sanga win 42% @ 2.70
- Sat 31 Oct, 05:00 Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 65% @ 1.48
- Sat 31 Oct, 05:00 Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo FC Tokyo win 47% @ 2.05
- Sat 31 Oct, 06:00 Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka Kashima win 56% @ 1.76
- Sat 31 Oct, 06:00 Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus Vissel Kobe win 52% @ 2.07
- Sat 31 Oct, 07:00 Kashiwa Reysol vs Urawa Kashiwa Reysol win 49% @ 2.12
Form and head-to-head
All competitionsV-varen Nagasaki
LWLDD
- 25 Oct · A v Urawa 0–1 (xG 0.68–1.31)
- 21 Oct · H v Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4–0 (xG 2.12–1.47)
- 17 Oct · A v Kashima 0–2 (xG 1.35–1.30)
- 11 Oct · A v JEF United Chiba 1–1 (xG 0.62–2.79)
- 19 Sep · H v Cerezo Osaka 1–1 (xG 0.91–2.88)
Tokyo Verdy
WDLLL
- 24 Oct · H v Avispa Fukuoka 3–1 (xG 1.22–1.20)
- 21 Oct · A v Yokohama F. Marinos 2–2 (xG 1.65–1.97)
- 17 Oct · H v FC Tokyo 0–4 (xG 0.17–2.54)
- 11 Oct · H v Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0–2 (xG 0.49–1.39)
- 19 Sep · A v Urawa 1–3 (xG 0.34–1.21)
Head-to-head
No previous meeting stored.