Manchester City vs Brighton prediction

15:00

Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Etihad Stadium

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 86%Books 86% Best odds 1.15 (Betano)

Match result: no bet

Home win

59%

Bookmakers 59%

Draw

22%

Bookmakers 21%

Away win

20%

Bookmakers 20%

Us 59%Bookmakers 59% Fair price Uncertainty ±2.1%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 59% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.

Home win: 59% against a market price of 59% (-0.2%).

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Manchester City vs Brighton preview

Manchester City host Brighton in the Premier League on Saturday 31 October at 15:00 at Etihad Stadium.

Our model gives Manchester City 59%, the draw 22% and Brighton 20%; the bookmakers' prices said 59%, 21% and 20%.

Manchester City have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 (13 scored, 11 conceded).

Brighton have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (11 scored, 4 conceded).

In their last 5 meetings Manchester City won 0, Brighton won 2 and 3 were drawn, with 3.2 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 86%.

More Premier League predictions

All Premier League matches

Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 Chelsea vs Manchester United Chelsea win 51% @ 1.90
Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Bournemouth vs Leeds Bournemouth win 48% @ 2.18
Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Brentford win 47% @ 2.09
Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Hull City vs Ipswich Hull City win 37% @ 2.73
Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Coventry vs Sunderland Sunderland win 38% @ 2.46
Sat 31 Oct, 17:30 Tottenham vs Crystal Palace Tottenham win 55% @ 1.58

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Manchester City

DLWWL

28 Oct · H v Brighton 2–2 (xG 0.80–2.05)
24 Oct · A v Aston Villa 1–2 (xG 1.81–0.64)
20 Oct · H v AEK Athens FC 5–1 (xG 2.82–1.23)
17 Oct · H v Ipswich 3–2 (xG 3.61–1.72)
14 Oct · H v Paris Saint Germain 2–4 (xG 2.67–1.85)

Brighton

DLDWW

28 Oct · A v Manchester City 2–2 (xG 2.05–0.80)
25 Oct · A v Liverpool 0–2 (xG 1.41–0.95)
22 Oct · A v FK Jablonec 0–0 (xG 1.42–0.73)
18 Oct · H v Crystal Palace 5–0 (xG 2.02–0.77)
15 Oct · H v Kauno Žalgiris 4–0 (xG 4.02–0.04)

Head-to-head

Manchester City 0 · draws 3 · Brighton 2, 3.2 goals a game

28 Oct 2026 · Manchester City 2–2 Brighton (League Cup)
7 Jan 2026 · Manchester City 1–1 Brighton (Premier League)
31 Aug 2025 · Brighton 2–1 Manchester City (Premier League)
15 Mar 2025 · Manchester City 2–2 Brighton (Premier League)
9 Nov 2024 · Brighton 2–1 Manchester City (Premier League)