Accrington ST vs Northampton prediction
Sat 31 Oct, 15:00
The Wham Stadium
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 3.5Under 3.5 goalsUs 77%Books 78% Best odds 1.26 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
47%
Bookmakers 44%
Draw
28%
Bookmakers 29%
Away win
26%
Bookmakers 27%
Us 47%Bookmakers 44%
Fair price
Uncertainty ±3.9%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 47% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +2.4% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 47% against a market price of 44% (+2.4%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Accrington ST vs Northampton preview
Accrington ST host Northampton in the League Two on Saturday 31 October at 15:00 at The Wham Stadium.
Our model gives Accrington ST 47%, the draw 28% and Northampton 26%; the bookmakers' prices said 44%, 29% and 27%.
Accrington ST have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 (10 scored, 3 conceded).
Northampton have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 (6 scored, 4 conceded).
Another call we like: Under 3.5 goals (Goals O/U 3.5) at 77%.
More League Two predictions
All League Two matches- Fri 30 Oct, 19:45 Newport County vs Chesterfield Chesterfield win 43% @ 2.07
- Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 Port Vale vs Rochdale Port Vale win 56% @ 1.76
- Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 Grimsby vs York Grimsby win 42% @ 2.38
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers Fleetwood Town win 43% @ 2.75
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Oldham vs Crawley Town Oldham win 56% @ 1.71
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Shrewsbury vs Gillingham Shrewsbury win 47% @ 2.05
Form and head-to-head
All competitionsAccrington ST
WDWDD
- 24 Oct · A v Rochdale 5–0 (xG 1.89–0.39)
- 20 Oct · A v York 1–1 (xG 1.05–1.87)
- 17 Oct · H v Gillingham 3–1 (xG 1.46–0.54)
- 10 Oct · A v Oldham 0–0 (xG 1.12–0.40)
- 6 Oct · H v Salford City 1–1
Northampton
WLWDL
- 24 Oct · H v Colchester 2–0 (xG 0.75–1.04)
- 20 Oct · H v Tranmere 0–1 (xG 1.37–0.84)
- 17 Oct · A v Grimsby 2–0 (xG 1.66–2.84)
- 10 Oct · A v York 1–1 (xG 1.03–2.32)
- 6 Oct · A v Cambridge United 1–2
Head-to-head
No previous meeting stored.