Port Vale vs Rochdale prediction
Sat 31 Oct, 12:30
Vale Park
E. Heaslip
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 74%Books 74% Best odds 1.32 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
56%
Bookmakers 55%
Draw
24%
Bookmakers 25%
Away win
20%
Bookmakers 20%
Us 56%Bookmakers 55%
Fair price
Uncertainty ±4.9%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 56% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +0.9% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 56% against a market price of 55% (+0.9%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Port Vale vs Rochdale preview
Port Vale host Rochdale in the League Two on Saturday 31 October at 12:30 at Vale Park.
Our model gives Port Vale 56%, the draw 24% and Rochdale 20%; the bookmakers' prices said 55%, 25% and 20%.
Port Vale have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 (8 scored, 3 conceded).
Rochdale have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 (5 scored, 16 conceded).
Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 74%.
More League Two predictions
All League Two matches- Fri 30 Oct, 19:45 Newport County vs Chesterfield Chesterfield win 43% @ 2.07
- Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 Grimsby vs York Grimsby win 42% @ 2.38
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers Fleetwood Town win 43% @ 2.75
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Oldham vs Crawley Town Oldham win 56% @ 1.71
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Shrewsbury vs Gillingham Shrewsbury win 47% @ 2.05
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Swindon Town vs Rotherham Swindon Town win 44% @ 2.40
Form and head-to-head
All competitionsPort Vale
WLDWW
- 27 Oct · H v Manchester City U21 5–0 (xG 1.30–0.95)
- 24 Oct · A v York 0–2 (xG 0.71–1.21)
- 20 Oct · A v Gillingham 1–1 (xG 0.88–1.70)
- 17 Oct · H v Chesterfield 1–0 (xG 0.61–0.28)
- 10 Oct · H v Grimsby 1–0 (xG 3.06–0.83)
Rochdale
LDLDL
- 24 Oct · H v Accrington ST 0–5 (xG 0.39–1.89)
- 20 Oct · H v Grimsby 2–2 (xG 2.10–2.39)
- 17 Oct · A v Crewe 2–3 (xG 0.89–1.53)
- 10 Oct · A v Tranmere 1–1 (xG 0.72–1.67)
- 6 Oct · A v Huddersfield 0–5
Head-to-head
No previous meeting stored.