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Entry #1121: pick published

Hash verified

Jeonbuk Motors v Jeju United FC: Home win 44% @ 1.92 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T04:00:18.656609+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 13fe0992bd1779fca84abf4e5420932049acaa18c21787cb1156ac7d22d886b5
Stored hash: 351edbc1d3a7b8d1a23ec74ec62ad7d25256e87c5872f468f5ec2e122d191b2c
Recomputed: 351edbc1d3a7b8d1a23ec74ec62ad7d25256e87c5872f468f5ec2e122d191b2c

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Jeju United FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0543,
  "explanation": "Home win: 44% against a market price of 49% (-5.4%).\nExpected goals Jeonbuk Motors 1.05 – 0.95 Jeju United FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 36% (uncertainty ±4.6%), so it carries 41% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRest days (Jeonbuk Motors 4, Jeju United FC 8) takes 1.7 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nJeonbuk Motors's defence (0.92× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nJeonbuk Motors's attack (1.05× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-5.4%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 42% → 44% (+1.8 pts); Away win 29% → 27% (-1.6 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1507085,
  "home": "Jeonbuk Motors",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T05:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "K League 1",
  "league_api_id": 292,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4928,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-292-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.92",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4385,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-5.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 42% → 44% (+1.8 pts); Away win 29% → 27% (-1.6 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}

#1120 #1122

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