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Entry #1122: pick published

Hash verified

FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC: Away win 22% @ 5.62 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T04:00:21.951985+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 351edbc1d3a7b8d1a23ec74ec62ad7d25256e87c5872f468f5ec2e122d191b2c
Stored hash: ecb57f585cdf12d30b7631359dee875cde4d8fd5578a3e7d54a713eeb8f256c2
Recomputed: ecb57f585cdf12d30b7631359dee875cde4d8fd5578a3e7d54a713eeb8f256c2

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Gimcheon Sangmu FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0607,
  "explanation": "Away win: 22% against a market price of 16% (+6.1%).\nExpected goals FC Seoul 1.13 – 1.00 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 31% (uncertainty ±4.5%), so it carries 43% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRest days (FC Seoul 4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 8) adds 1.3 pts to away win.\nFC Seoul's attack (1.14× the league rate) takes 1.2 pts from away win.\nFC Seoul's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 6.1% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 52% (+2.8 pts); Draw 27% → 26% (-1.1 pts); Away win 23% → 22% (-1.7 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 62% → 63%; Away win 16% → 16%.",
  "fixture": 1507082,
  "home": "FC Seoul",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T07:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "K League 1",
  "league_api_id": 292,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1569,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-292-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "5.62",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.2176,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 6.1% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 52% (+2.8 pts); Draw 27% → 26% (-1.1 pts); Away win 23% → 22% (-1.7 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 62% → 63%; Away win 16% → 16%."
}

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