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Entry #1123: pick published

Hash verified

Pohang Steelers v FC Anyang: Away win 30% @ 3.59 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T04:00:24.226495+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: ecb57f585cdf12d30b7631359dee875cde4d8fd5578a3e7d54a713eeb8f256c2
Stored hash: 69d47d0ebbe3ed6b2a1e9f266c43b8950adb48d8a5b783aa6c70282cda8d2a07
Recomputed: 69d47d0ebbe3ed6b2a1e9f266c43b8950adb48d8a5b783aa6c70282cda8d2a07

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "FC Anyang",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0405,
  "explanation": "Away win: 30% against a market price of 26% (+4.0%).\nExpected goals Pohang Steelers 0.99 – 0.99 FC Anyang.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 34% (uncertainty ±5.2%), so it carries 48% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nPohang Steelers's attack (0.92× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nFC Anyang's defence (1.05× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.0% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 43% → 41% (-2.8 pts); Draw 29% → 30% (+0.7 pts); Away win 28% → 30% (+2.1 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1507087,
  "home": "Pohang Steelers",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T07:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "K League 1",
  "league_api_id": 292,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.256,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-292-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "3.59",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.2965,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.0% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 43% → 41% (-2.8 pts); Draw 29% → 30% (+0.7 pts); Away win 28% → 30% (+2.1 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}

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