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Entry #1124: pick published

Hash verified

Ural v Nizhny Novgorod: Home win 36% @ 2.57 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T04:00:26.153154+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 69d47d0ebbe3ed6b2a1e9f266c43b8950adb48d8a5b783aa6c70282cda8d2a07
Stored hash: 2ecda9df97710a0167ca219b51a5ba5a51d8ea5d0920989a1664a92294b9daff
Recomputed: 2ecda9df97710a0167ca219b51a5ba5a51d8ea5d0920989a1664a92294b9daff

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Nizhny Novgorod",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0061,
  "explanation": "Home win: 36% against a market price of 37% (-0.6%).\nExpected goals Ural 1.36 – 1.50 Nizhny Novgorod.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 34% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nNizhny Novgorod's attack (1.81× the league rate) takes 3.9 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nUral's attack (1.20× the league rate) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nUral's defence (0.87× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.6%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 36% → 36% (+0.8 pts); Away win 36% → 35% (-0.8 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.",
  "fixture": 1577555,
  "home": "Ural",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T10:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "First League",
  "league_api_id": 236,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3696,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-236-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.57",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3635,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 36% → 36% (+0.8 pts); Away win 36% → 35% (-0.8 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win."
}

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