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Entry #1125: pick published

Hash verified

Gornik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice: Home win 57% @ 1.56 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T04:00:31.508932+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 2ecda9df97710a0167ca219b51a5ba5a51d8ea5d0920989a1664a92294b9daff
Stored hash: 356e837b8775f36c9e5f3c6c95d31b52e734c25a99a6e95a74d874e1423b0ea2
Recomputed: 356e837b8775f36c9e5f3c6c95d31b52e734c25a99a6e95a74d874e1423b0ea2

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Piast Gliwice",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.043,
  "explanation": "Home win: 57% against a market price of 61% (-4.3%).\nExpected goals Gornik Zabrze 1.50 – 0.97 Piast Gliwice.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±6.2%), so it carries 35% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+28% goals at home) adds 3.2 pts to home win.\nGornik Zabrze's defence (0.88× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nRest days (Gornik Zabrze 8, Piast Gliwice 7) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nGornik Zabrze's attack (1.04× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-4.3%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 55% → 57% (+1.7 pts); Draw 25% → 24% (-0.9 pts); Away win 20% → 19% (-0.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 60% → 61%; Away win 18% → 17%.",
  "fixture": 1553193,
  "home": "Gornik Zabrze",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ekstraklasa",
  "league_api_id": 106,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6083,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-106-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.56",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.5653,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-4.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 55% → 57% (+1.7 pts); Draw 25% → 24% (-0.9 pts); Away win 20% → 19% (-0.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 60% → 61%; Away win 18% → 17%."
}

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