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Entry #1126: pick published

Hash verified

Sirius v IF Elfsborg: Home win 48% @ 2.06 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T04:00:42.532366+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 356e837b8775f36c9e5f3c6c95d31b52e734c25a99a6e95a74d874e1423b0ea2
Stored hash: 35eeae356dc3ee95ef13ea04dcd1271a47b2953c83c30e564e43d8397506c81e
Recomputed: 35eeae356dc3ee95ef13ea04dcd1271a47b2953c83c30e564e43d8397506c81e

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "IF Elfsborg",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0225,
  "explanation": "Home win: 48% against a market price of 46% (+2.3%).\nExpected goals Sirius 2.11 – 1.27 IF Elfsborg.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 56% (uncertainty ±8.4%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSirius's attack (1.31× the league rate) adds 2.5 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nRest days (Sirius 8, IF Elfsborg 6) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nIF Elfsborg's defence (0.95× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.3%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 50% → 48% (-1.5 pts); Draw 24% → 25% (+0.7 pts); Away win 26% → 27% (+0.7 pts).\nTag changed from Value to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1494303,
  "home": "Sirius",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Allsvenskan",
  "league_api_id": 113,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4584,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-113-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.06",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.481,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 50% → 48% (-1.5 pts); Draw 24% → 25% (+0.7 pts); Away win 26% → 27% (+0.7 pts).\nTag changed from Value to Avoid."
}

#1125 #1127

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