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Entry #1120: pick published

Hash verified

Fagiano Okayama v Vissel Kobe: Away win 42% @ 2.55 (Value)

Written: 2026-10-18T04:00:16.025046+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: e0c50893d56235a4e01dadbf3d45d73009fb8b1e9230beb04bc71fcee783587f
Stored hash: 13fe0992bd1779fca84abf4e5420932049acaa18c21787cb1156ac7d22d886b5
Recomputed: 13fe0992bd1779fca84abf4e5420932049acaa18c21787cb1156ac7d22d886b5

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Vissel Kobe",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0524,
  "explanation": "Away win: 42% against a market price of 37% (+5.2%).\nExpected goals Fagiano Okayama 0.94 – 1.45 Vissel Kobe.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±5.5%), so it carries 44% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRest days (Fagiano Okayama 8, Vissel Kobe 4) adds 2.5 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+14% goals at home) takes 1.3 pts from away win.\nVissel Kobe's defence (0.89× the league rate against) adds 1.2 pts to away win.\nVissel Kobe's attack (1.07× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nTagged Value: our 42% beats the market's 37%.\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 32% → 30% (-2.4 pts); Away win 39% → 42% (+2.7 pts).\nTag changed from Avoid to Value.",
  "fixture": 1556097,
  "home": "Fagiano Okayama",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T04:55:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3691,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.55",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4216,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "value",
  "tag_reason": "our 42% beats the market's 37%",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 32% → 30% (-2.4 pts); Away win 39% → 42% (+2.7 pts).\nTag changed from Avoid to Value."
}

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