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Entry #1119: pick published

Hash verified

Seattle Sounders v CF Montreal: Home win 66% @ 1.36 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T04:00:06.639036+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 04e7dd4278cdc70cadea6cf74a955994851b980d5729043a0799c13247f50d3f
Stored hash: e0c50893d56235a4e01dadbf3d45d73009fb8b1e9230beb04bc71fcee783587f
Recomputed: e0c50893d56235a4e01dadbf3d45d73009fb8b1e9230beb04bc71fcee783587f

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "CF Montreal",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0453,
  "explanation": "Home win: 66% against a market price of 71% (-4.5%).\nExpected goals Seattle Sounders 1.81 – 1.02 CF Montreal.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 55% (uncertainty ±6.4%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 3.0 pts to home win.\nCF Montreal's defence (1.10× the league rate against) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nCF Montreal's attack (0.86× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nSeattle Sounders's defence (0.91× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-4.5%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 64% → 66% (+1.7 pts); Draw 20% → 20% (-0.7 pts); Away win 15% → 14% (-1.0 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1490552,
  "home": "Seattle Sounders",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T02:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Major League Soccer",
  "league_api_id": 253,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.707,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-253-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.36",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.6618,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-4.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 64% → 66% (+1.7 pts); Draw 20% → 20% (-0.7 pts); Away win 15% → 14% (-1.0 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}

#1118 #1120

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