BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums prediction

11:00

Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 Stadions Celtnieks

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 82%Books 82% Best odds 1.17 (Bet365)

Most likely: Home win

Home win

63%

Bookmakers 62%

Draw

21%

Bookmakers 21%

Away win

16%

Bookmakers 17%

Us 63%Bookmakers 62% Fair price Uncertainty ±1.4%

Most likely home win, and the bookmakers agree: no edge on the price, but a likely leg for a slip.

Home win: 63% against a market price of 62% (+0.8%).

The full reasoning, 5 more markets and 2 versions of this pick

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BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums preview

BFC Daugavpils host Tukums in the Virsliga on Sunday 1 November at 11:00 at Stadions Celtnieks.

Our model gives BFC Daugavpils 63%, the draw 21% and Tukums 16%; the bookmakers' prices said 62%, 21% and 17%.

BFC Daugavpils have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 (6 scored, 4 conceded).

Tukums have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 (1 scored, 6 conceded).

In their last 6 meetings BFC Daugavpils won 2, Tukums won 1 and 3 were drawn, with 1.7 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 82%.

More Virsliga predictions

All Virsliga matches

Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 FK Liepaja vs Super Nova FK Liepaja win 63% @ 1.45
Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 Auda vs FS Jelgava Auda win 66% @ 1.57
Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa Rīgas FS win 88% @ 1.11
Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 Ogre United vs Riga Riga win 89% @ 1.08

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

BFC Daugavpils

WWWDL

25 Oct · A v FS Jelgava 1–0 (xG 1.80–1.32)
19 Oct · H v Auda 2–1 (xG 1.08–2.53)
11 Oct · A v Ogre United 2–1
19 Sep · A v FK Liepaja 0–0
13 Sep · H v Rīgas FS 1–2

Tukums

DLLDL

24 Oct · A v FK Liepaja 0–0 (xG 0.52–3.25)
19 Oct · A v Rīgas FS 0–2 (xG 0.22–2.58)
10 Oct · H v Riga 0–2 (xG 0.79–2.97)
20 Sep · H v Grobiņa 1–1
10 Sep · A v Super Nova 0–1

Head-to-head

BFC Daugavpils 2 · draws 3 · Tukums 1, 1.7 goals a game

8 Aug 2026 · BFC Daugavpils 2–0 Tukums (Virsliga)
12 Jun 2026 · Tukums 1–1 BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga)
21 Apr 2026 · Tukums 1–1 BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga)
30 Aug 2025 · Tukums 0–1 BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga)
21 Jun 2025 · BFC Daugavpils 1–2 Tukums (Virsliga)
30 Apr 2025 · Tukums 0–0 BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga)