FK Liepaja vs Super Nova prediction

11:00

Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 Daugavas stadions

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 79%Books 81% Best odds 1.20 (Bet365)

Most likely: Home win

Home win

63%

Bookmakers 65%

Draw

21%

Bookmakers 20%

Away win

15%

Bookmakers 15%

Us 63%Bookmakers 65% Odds too short Uncertainty ±2.1%

Most likely home win, and the bookmakers agree: no edge on the price, but a likely leg for a slip.

Home win: 63% against a market price of 65% (-2.1%).

The full reasoning, 5 more markets and 1 version of this pick

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FK Liepaja vs Super Nova preview

FK Liepaja host Super Nova in the Virsliga on Sunday 1 November at 11:00 at Daugavas stadions.

Our model gives FK Liepaja 63%, the draw 21% and Super Nova 15%; the bookmakers' prices said 65%, 20% and 15%.

FK Liepaja have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (7 scored, 5 conceded).

Super Nova have 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 5 (3 scored, 11 conceded).

In their last 6 meetings FK Liepaja won 4, Super Nova won 2 and 0 were drawn, with 3.2 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 79%.

More Virsliga predictions

All Virsliga matches

Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 Auda vs FS Jelgava Auda win 66% @ 1.57
Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums BFC Daugavpils win 63% @ 1.52
Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa Rīgas FS win 88% @ 1.11
Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 Ogre United vs Riga Riga win 89% @ 1.08

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

FK Liepaja

DWLDD

24 Oct · H v Tukums 0–0 (xG 3.25–0.52)
18 Oct · H v FS Jelgava 3–0
12 Oct · H v Auda 2–3
19 Sep · H v BFC Daugavpils 0–0
11 Sep · A v Ogre United 2–2

Super Nova

LLLWL

25 Oct · H v Rīgas FS 0–3 (xG 0.33–1.81)
18 Oct · A v Riga 1–2 (xG 0.58–2.08)
15 Oct · A v Rīgas FS 0–4
10 Oct · H v Grobiņa 2–1
20 Sep · A v Ogre United 0–1

Head-to-head

FK Liepaja 4 · draws 0 · Super Nova 2, 3.2 goals a game

9 Aug 2026 · Super Nova 1–2 FK Liepaja (Virsliga)
12 Jun 2026 · FK Liepaja 2–1 Super Nova (Virsliga)
23 Apr 2026 · Super Nova 1–2 FK Liepaja (Virsliga)
9 Nov 2025 · Super Nova 3–0 FK Liepaja (Virsliga)
25 Aug 2025 · FK Liepaja 0–3 Super Nova (Virsliga)
17 Jun 2025 · Super Nova 1–3 FK Liepaja (Virsliga)