Marseille vs Toulouse prediction

19:45

Sun 1 Nov, 19:45 Orange Vélodrome

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 82%Books 84% Best odds 1.18 (Betano)

Match result: no bet

Home win

45%

Bookmakers 50%

Draw

25%

Bookmakers 24%

Away win

30%

Bookmakers 26%

Us 45%Bookmakers 50% Odds too short Uncertainty ±2.5%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 45% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.

Home win: 45% against a market price of 50% (-4.9%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick

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Marseille vs Toulouse preview

Marseille host Toulouse in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 1 November at 19:45 at Orange Vélodrome.

Our model gives Marseille 45%, the draw 25% and Toulouse 30%; the bookmakers' prices said 50%, 24% and 26%.

Marseille have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 (11 scored, 7 conceded).

Toulouse have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 (10 scored, 6 conceded).

In their last 4 meetings Marseille won 3, Toulouse won 0 and 1 was drawn, with 3.5 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 82%.

More Ligue 1 predictions

All Ligue 1 matches

Fri 30 Oct, 18:00 Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain win 76% @ 1.29
Fri 30 Oct, 18:00 Nice vs Rennes Rennes win 43% @ 2.53
Fri 30 Oct, 20:05 Lille vs Lens Lille win 40% @ 2.64
Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 Lorient win 42% @ 2.50
Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 Estac Troyes vs Le Mans Estac Troyes win 43% @ 2.39
Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 Strasbourg vs Auxerre Strasbourg win 52% @ 1.87

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Marseille

WLWLW

25 Oct · H v Le Havre 4–3 (xG 1.63–3.22)
22 Oct · A v Sturm Graz 0–1 (xG 0.73–1.47)
18 Oct · A v Angers 5–2 (xG 2.77–2.06)
15 Oct · H v Olympiakos Piraeus 0–1 (xG 0.90–0.63)
11 Oct · A v Estac Troyes 2–0 (xG 1.30–1.06)

Toulouse

DWDWD

25 Oct · H v Estac Troyes 0–0 (xG 0.88–0.41)
16 Oct · A v Le Mans 3–0 (xG 1.83–0.98)
10 Oct · A v Monaco 2–2 (xG 1.49–1.25)
19 Sep · H v Le Havre 3–2 (xG 1.95–2.34)
12 Sep · A v Lorient 2–2 (xG 1.63–0.93)

Head-to-head

Marseille 3 · draws 1 · Toulouse 0, 3.5 goals a game

7 Mar 2026 · Toulouse 0–1 Marseille (Ligue 1)
29 Nov 2025 · Marseille 2–2 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
6 Apr 2025 · Marseille 3–2 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
31 Aug 2024 · Toulouse 1–3 Marseille (Ligue 1)