Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction
Sun 1 Nov, 16:30
Anfield
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 75%Books 76% Best odds 1.29 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
33%
Bookmakers 32%
Draw
28%
Bookmakers 28%
Away win
39%
Bookmakers 40%
Us 39%Bookmakers 40%
Fair price
Uncertainty ±2.7%
Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: only 39% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Away win: 39% against a market price of 40% (-1.2%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick
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Liverpool vs Arsenal preview
Liverpool host Arsenal in the Premier League on Sunday 1 November at 16:30 at Anfield.
Our model gives Liverpool 33%, the draw 28% and Arsenal 39%; the bookmakers' prices said 32%, 28% and 40%.
Liverpool have 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats from their last 5 (15 scored, 8 conceded).
Arsenal have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 (9 scored, 3 conceded).
In their last 4 meetings Liverpool won 1, Arsenal won 0 and 3 were drawn, with 2.2 goals a game.
Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 75%.
More Premier League predictions
All Premier League matches- Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 Chelsea vs Manchester United Chelsea win 51% @ 1.90
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Bournemouth vs Leeds Bournemouth win 48% @ 2.18
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Manchester City vs Brighton Manchester City win 59% @ 1.67
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Brentford win 47% @ 2.09
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Hull City vs Ipswich Hull City win 37% @ 2.73
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Coventry vs Sunderland Sunderland win 37% @ 2.46
Form and head-to-head
All competitionsLiverpool
DWWWW
- 28 Oct · H v Chelsea 1–1 (xG 2.19–1.88)
- 25 Oct · H v Brighton 2–0 (xG 0.95–1.41)
- 20 Oct · H v Villarreal 4–3 (xG 2.41–1.59)
- 17 Oct · A v Brentford 2–1 (xG 1.54–0.90)
- 14 Oct · A v Lask Linz 6–3 (xG 3.26–2.08)
Arsenal
DWDWW
- 27 Oct · A v Fleetwood Town 1–1 (xG 2.28–0.34)
- 24 Oct · H v Everton 2–0 (xG 1.85–0.54)
- 21 Oct · A v Bayern München 2–2 (xG 1.71–2.50)
- 18 Oct · A v Nottingham Forest 1–0 (xG 1.09–0.79)
- 13 Oct · H v Lille 3–0 (xG 1.70–0.30)
Head-to-head
Liverpool 1 · draws 3 · Arsenal 0, 2.3 goals a game
- 8 Jan 2026 · Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 31 Aug 2025 · Liverpool 1–0 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 11 May 2025 · Liverpool 2–2 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 27 Oct 2024 · Arsenal 2–2 Liverpool (Premier League)