Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund prediction

17:30

Sat 31 Oct, 17:30 Allianz Arena

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 92%Books 92% Best odds 1.08 (Betano)

Most likely: Home win

Home win

72%

Bookmakers 72%

Draw

16%

Bookmakers 16%

Away win

13%

Bookmakers 13%

Us 72%Bookmakers 72% Fair price Uncertainty ±1.3%

Most likely home win, and the bookmakers agree: no edge on the price, but a likely leg for a slip.

Home win: 72% against a market price of 72% (+0.3%).

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Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund preview

Bayern München host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on Saturday 31 October at 17:30 at Allianz Arena.

Our model gives Bayern München 72%, the draw 16% and Borussia Dortmund 13%; the bookmakers' prices said 72%, 16% and 13%.

Bayern München have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 (20 scored, 8 conceded).

Borussia Dortmund have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 (6 scored, 4 conceded).

In their last 4 meetings Bayern München won 2, Borussia Dortmund won 0 and 2 were drawn, with 3.5 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 92%.

More Bundesliga predictions

All Bundesliga matches

Fri 30 Oct, 19:30 SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 win 42% @ 2.15
Sat 31 Oct, 14:30 Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim win 43% @ 2.30
Sat 31 Oct, 14:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 Borussia Mönchengladbach win 47% @ 2.00
Sat 31 Oct, 14:30 Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart Bayer Leverkusen win 55% @ 1.85
Sat 31 Oct, 14:30 FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg SC Freiburg win 43% @ 2.25
Sat 31 Oct, 14:30 FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig RB Leipzig win 49% @ 1.92

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Bayern München

WWDWD

28 Oct · H v 1. FC Magdeburg 6–1 (xG 4.02–0.88)
25 Oct · A v SC Freiburg 3–1 (xG 3.05–0.97)
21 Oct · H v Arsenal 2–2 (xG 2.50–1.71)
17 Oct · H v RB Leipzig 6–1 (xG 3.48–0.90)
13 Oct · A v Viking 3–3 (xG 3.51–0.56)

Borussia Dortmund

WWWDL

27 Oct · H v Werder Bremen 3–2 (xG 1.44–1.59)
24 Oct · H v Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 (xG 1.56–0.91)
20 Oct · A v Sabah FA 2–1 (xG 3.75–1.53)
17 Oct · A v Union Berlin 0–0 (xG 1.42–0.90)
14 Oct · A v Bodo/Glimt 0–1 (xG 0.85–1.20)

Head-to-head

Bayern München 2 · draws 2 · Borussia Dortmund 0, 3.5 goals a game

28 Feb 2026 · Borussia Dortmund 2–3 Bayern München (Bundesliga)
18 Oct 2025 · Bayern München 2–1 Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga)
12 Apr 2025 · Bayern München 2–2 Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga)
30 Nov 2024 · Borussia Dortmund 1–1 Bayern München (Bundesliga)