Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln prediction

14:30

Sun 1 Nov, 14:30

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 81%Books 81% Best odds 1.22 (Betano)

Match result: no bet

Home win

39%

Bookmakers 37%

Draw

25%

Bookmakers 26%

Away win

36%

Bookmakers 37%

Us 39%Bookmakers 37% Fair price Uncertainty ±2.7%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 39% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +1.9% alone is not enough).

Home win: 39% against a market price of 37% (+1.9%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick

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Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln preview

Union Berlin host 1. FC Köln in the Bundesliga on Sunday 1 November at 14:30.

Our model gives Union Berlin 39%, the draw 25% and 1. FC Köln 36%; the bookmakers' prices said 37%, 26% and 37%.

Union Berlin have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 (2 scored, 13 conceded).

1. FC Köln have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 (8 scored, 4 conceded).

In their last 3 meetings Union Berlin won 1, 1. FC Köln won 1 and 1 was drawn, with 3.3 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 81%.

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Sat 31 Oct, 14:30 FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig RB Leipzig win 51% @ 1.88

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Union Berlin

LDDWL

27 Oct · A v 1. FC Köln 0–5 (xG 1.10–3.04)
24 Oct · A v FC Augsburg 1–1 (xG 1.24–1.91)
17 Oct · H v Borussia Dortmund 0–0 (xG 0.90–1.42)
10 Oct · H v SV Elversberg 1–0 (xG 1.13–0.24)
18 Sep · A v Bayern München 0–7 (xG 0.34–3.71)

1. FC Köln

WDLWL

27 Oct · H v Union Berlin 5–0 (xG 3.04–1.10)
24 Oct · H v FC Schalke 04 0–0 (xG 1.29–0.66)
16 Oct · A v Eintracht Frankfurt 0–1 (xG 0.82–1.84)
11 Oct · H v Borussia Mönchengladbach 2–1 (xG 1.32–1.17)
19 Sep · A v Hamburger SV 1–2

Head-to-head

Union Berlin 1 · draws 1 · 1. FC Köln 1, 3.3 goals a game

27 Oct 2026 · 1. FC Köln 5–0 Union Berlin (DFB Pokal)
2 May 2026 · Union Berlin 2–2 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
20 Dec 2025 · 1. FC Köln 0–1 Union Berlin (Bundesliga)