Arouca vs Nacional prediction
Sun 1 Nov, 15:30
Bets on this match
Best expected value first, at the best price we found-
Goals O/U 3.5Under 3.5 goalsBankerUs 73%Books 70% Beats the odds Best odds 1.39 (Betano)
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Corners O/U 8.5Over 8.5 cornersUs 64%Books 64% Best odds 1.47 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
53%
Bookmakers 52%
Draw
26%
Bookmakers 25%
Away win
22%
Bookmakers 22%
Us 53%Bookmakers 52%
Fair price
Uncertainty ±2.5%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 53% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +0.5% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 53% against a market price of 52% (+0.5%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Arouca vs Nacional preview
Arouca host Nacional in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 1 November at 15:30.
Our model gives Arouca 53%, the draw 26% and Nacional 22%; the bookmakers' prices said 52%, 25% and 22%.
Arouca have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 (9 scored, 7 conceded).
Nacional have 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 5 (4 scored, 11 conceded).
In their last 4 meetings Arouca won 4, Nacional won 0 and 0 were drawn, with 2.5 goals a game.
Another call we like: Under 3.5 goals (Goals O/U 3.5) at 73%.
More Primeira Liga predictions
All Primeira Liga matches- Fri 30 Oct, 20:15 Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Sporting CP win 70% @ 1.32
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:30 Moreirense vs Estrela Estrela win 36% @ 2.55
- Sat 31 Oct, 20:30 FC Porto vs Estoril FC Porto win 77% @ 1.26
- Sun 1 Nov, 18:00 Maritimo vs Santa Clara Santa Clara win 40% @ 2.34
- Sun 1 Nov, 18:00 Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave Academico Viseu win 52% @ 1.98
- Sun 1 Nov, 20:30 SC Braga vs Famalicao SC Braga win 50% @ 1.87
Form and head-to-head
All competitionsArouca
WWWDL
- 24 Oct · A v Alverca 1–0 (xG 2.06–0.43)
- 18 Oct · A v CF Os Belenenses 4–3
- 11 Oct · H v Estrela 1–0 (xG 0.74–1.45)
- 19 Sep · A v Sporting CP 2–2 (xG 2.08–1.28)
- 13 Sep · H v Santa Clara 1–2 (xG 0.72–1.16)
Nacional
WLLLL
- 25 Oct · H v SC Braga 1–0 (xG 0.52–1.69)
- 17 Oct · A v Sanjoanense 0–1
- 11 Oct · A v Rio Ave 2–3 (xG 1.21–1.66)
- 19 Sep · H v Famalicao 0–4 (xG 1.23–1.45)
- 12 Sep · H v Alverca 1–3 (xG 2.20–1.16)
Head-to-head
Arouca 4 · draws 0 · Nacional 0, 2.5 goals a game
- 21 Feb 2026 · Arouca 3–0 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 20 Sep 2025 · Nacional 1–2 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 1 Feb 2025 · Nacional 1–2 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 25 Aug 2024 · Arouca 1–0 Nacional (Primeira Liga)