Maritimo vs Santa Clara prediction
Sun 1 Nov, 18:00
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 3.5Under 3.5 goalsUs 83%Books 82% Best odds 1.20 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
29%
Bookmakers 28%
Draw
30%
Bookmakers 30%
Away win
40%
Bookmakers 42%
Us 40%Bookmakers 42%
Fair price
Uncertainty ±4.2%
Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: only 40% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Away win: 40% against a market price of 42% (-1.5%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Maritimo vs Santa Clara preview
Maritimo host Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 1 November at 18:00.
Our model gives Maritimo 29%, the draw 30% and Santa Clara 40%; the bookmakers' prices said 28%, 30% and 42%.
Maritimo have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 (5 scored, 12 conceded).
Santa Clara have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 (6 scored, 6 conceded).
Another call we like: Under 3.5 goals (Goals O/U 3.5) at 83%.
More Primeira Liga predictions
All Primeira Liga matches- Fri 30 Oct, 20:15 Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Sporting CP win 70% @ 1.32
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:30 Moreirense vs Estrela Estrela win 36% @ 2.55
- Sat 31 Oct, 20:30 FC Porto vs Estoril FC Porto win 77% @ 1.26
- Sun 1 Nov, 15:30 Arouca vs Nacional Arouca win 53% @ 1.88
- Sun 1 Nov, 18:00 Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave Academico Viseu win 52% @ 1.98
- Sun 1 Nov, 20:30 SC Braga vs Famalicao SC Braga win 50% @ 1.87
Form and head-to-head
All competitionsMaritimo
LWLDL
- 23 Oct · A v Vitória SC 0–5 (xG 0.54–1.82)
- 18 Oct · A v Alcochetense 2–1
- 10 Oct · H v FC Porto 1–2 (xG 0.19–2.13)
- 19 Sep · A v GIL Vicente 1–1 (xG 0.86–1.20)
- 14 Sep · A v Moreirense 1–3 (xG 0.76–2.00)
Santa Clara
LLWDW
- 26 Oct · H v Benfica 1–2 (xG 1.60–1.83)
- 18 Oct · A v Mafra 2–3
- 10 Oct · A v Casa Pia 1–0 (xG 0.61–0.43)
- 20 Sep · H v SC Braga 0–0 (xG 1.04–0.50)
- 13 Sep · A v Arouca 2–1 (xG 1.16–0.72)
Head-to-head
No previous meeting stored.