Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners prediction

04:00

Sun 1 Nov, 04:00 AAMI Park

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 82%Books 84% Best odds 1.17 (Pinnacle)

Match result: no bet

Home win

62%

Bookmakers 67%

Draw

21%

Bookmakers 19%

Away win

16%

Bookmakers 14%

Us 62%Bookmakers 67% Odds too short Uncertainty ±2.0%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: no profit at the best price (-7.6% expected per unit).

Home win: 62% against a market price of 67% (-4.6%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick

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Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners preview

Melbourne Victory host Central Coast Mariners in the A-League on Sunday 1 November at 04:00 at AAMI Park.

Our model gives Melbourne Victory 62%, the draw 21% and Central Coast Mariners 16%; the bookmakers' prices said 67%, 19% and 14%.

Melbourne Victory have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 (6 scored, 6 conceded).

Central Coast Mariners have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 (5 scored, 10 conceded).

In their last 4 meetings Melbourne Victory won 2, Central Coast Mariners won 1 and 1 was drawn, with 2.2 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 82%.

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