Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito prediction

18:30

Sun 1 Nov, 18:30 Estadio Banco Guayaquil

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 77%Books 77% Best odds 1.26 (Betano)

Match result: no bet

Home win

54%

Bookmakers 53%

Draw

25%

Bookmakers 25%

Away win

22%

Bookmakers 22%

Us 54%Bookmakers 53% Fair price Uncertainty ±1.9%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 54% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +1.2% alone is not enough).

Home win: 54% against a market price of 53% (+1.2%).

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Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito preview

Independiente del Valle host LDU de Quito in the Liga Pro on Sunday 1 November at 18:30 at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.

Our model gives Independiente del Valle 54%, the draw 25% and LDU de Quito 22%; the bookmakers' prices said 53%, 25% and 22%.

Independiente del Valle have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (6 scored, 5 conceded).

LDU de Quito have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 (9 scored, 7 conceded).

In their last 6 meetings Independiente del Valle won 1, LDU de Quito won 2 and 3 were drawn, with 1.8 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 77%.

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