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Entry #394: pick published

Hash verified

Austria Lustenau v Lask Linz: Home win 15% @ 7.72 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:03:40.848702+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 5a6e8e6017facfc5cb6f4af160e518729b29349fb1ee71064b33aa7ac3a200ae
Stored hash: 226d32480b5c534028f127f00424632fb43bd1c31c150561627ed57d99ddabe3
Recomputed: 226d32480b5c534028f127f00424632fb43bd1c31c150561627ed57d99ddabe3

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Lask Linz",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0419,
  "explanation": "Home win: 15% against a market price of 11% (+4.2%).\nExpected goals Austria Lustenau 1.32 – 1.55 Lask Linz.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 31% (uncertainty ±7.2%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nRest days (Austria Lustenau 6, Lask Linz 3) takes 1.7 pts from home win.\nLask Linz's attack (1.19× the league rate) takes 1.3 pts from home win.\nLask Linz's defence (0.95× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.2% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1561942,
  "home": "Austria Lustenau",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 218,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1099,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-218-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "7.72",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.1519,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.2% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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