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Entry #432: pick published

Hash verified

Banfield v Argentinos JRS: Home win 28% @ 3.70 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:46.552393+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: fced2ce9ce18c88a677d4c0a51fa578146af875373b3ce595579e2d7d75c3549
Stored hash: 1f98c9257ebbbbd645481067912400628fe65255479a7b5092b7f72bb295382e
Recomputed: 1f98c9257ebbbbd645481067912400628fe65255479a7b5092b7f72bb295382e

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Argentinos JRS",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0321,
  "explanation": "Home win: 28% against a market price of 25% (+3.2%).\nExpected goals Banfield 1.15 – 1.22 Argentinos JRS.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 33% (uncertainty ±5.1%), so it carries 42% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 3.0 pts to home win.\nArgentinos JRS's defence (0.91× the league rate against) takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nArgentinos JRS's attack (1.10× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nBanfield's defence (1.09× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.2% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1493183,
  "home": "Banfield",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
  "league_api_id": 128,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2499,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-128-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "3.70",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.282,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.2% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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