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Entry #820: pick published

Hash verified

Sturm Graz v Grazer AK: Home win 54% @ 1.81 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:17:24.518466+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 88470f53500b562e282fabf90e3e174e261a72f739e641316e5d200df09ead32
Stored hash: 205682e4bdc92fcef48465bd28f6d4d86b924a14ac4f14667e9b7be4585878d5
Recomputed: 205682e4bdc92fcef48465bd28f6d4d86b924a14ac4f14667e9b7be4585878d5

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Grazer AK",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0123,
  "explanation": "Home win: 54% against a market price of 53% (+1.2%).\nExpected goals Sturm Graz 1.81 – 0.97 Grazer AK.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 56% (uncertainty ±6.3%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 3.0 pts to home win.\nRest days (Sturm Graz 3, Grazer AK 8) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nSturm Graz's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nGrazer AK's attack (0.92× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.2%).",
  "fixture": 1561946,
  "home": "Sturm Graz",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 218,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5255,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-218-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.81",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5378,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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