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{
  "away": "Start",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0132,
  "explanation": "Home win: 71% against a market price of 73% (-1.3%).\nExpected goals Molde 2.36 – 1.09 Start.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 65% (uncertainty ±8.7%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+30% goals at home) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nMolde's attack (1.23× the league rate) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nStart's defence (1.15× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nStart's attack (0.86× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.3%).",
  "fixture": 1494782,
  "home": "Molde",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eliteserien",
  "league_api_id": 103,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7275,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-103-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.32",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.7143,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}