Burnley vs Portsmouth prediction
Sat 31 Oct, 15:00
Turf Moor
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 74%Books 75% Best odds 1.29 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
44%
Bookmakers 46%
Draw
27%
Bookmakers 27%
Away win
29%
Bookmakers 27%
Us 44%Bookmakers 46%
Odds too short
Uncertainty ±4.1%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 44% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Home win: 44% against a market price of 46% (-2.2%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Burnley vs Portsmouth preview
Burnley host Portsmouth in the Championship on Saturday 31 October at 15:00 at Turf Moor.
Our model gives Burnley 44%, the draw 27% and Portsmouth 29%; the bookmakers' prices said 46%, 27% and 27%.
Burnley have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 (9 scored, 9 conceded).
Portsmouth have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 (7 scored, 5 conceded).
In their last 2 meetings Burnley won 1, Portsmouth won 0 and 1 was drawn, with 1.5 goals a game.
Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 74%.
More Championship predictions
All Championship matches- Fri 30 Oct, 20:00 Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham Sheffield Utd win 42% @ 2.60
- Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 Norwich vs Watford Norwich win 60% @ 1.60
- Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 Stoke City vs Preston Stoke City win 52% @ 1.76
- Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 Lincoln vs Birmingham Birmingham win 40% @ 2.15
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Wolves vs Cardiff Wolves win 55% @ 1.66
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Southampton vs QPR Southampton win 55% @ 1.78
Form and head-to-head
All competitionsBurnley
LLDWD
- 24 Oct · A v Lincoln 1–4 (xG 2.37–1.94)
- 16 Oct · H v Wolves 1–2 (xG 1.04–1.85)
- 13 Oct · H v Charlton 2–2 (xG 1.08–2.13)
- 10 Oct · A v Watford 4–0 (xG 1.94–0.64)
- 19 Sep · H v Derby 1–1 (xG 0.45–1.75)
Portsmouth
WDWWL
- 24 Oct · H v Millwall 2–1 (xG 0.91–0.73)
- 20 Oct · A v Wolves 1–1 (xG 0.71–1.08)
- 17 Oct · A v Norwich 1–0 (xG 1.25–0.37)
- 14 Oct · H v Sheffield Utd 3–2 (xG 2.01–1.80)
- 11 Oct · A v Southampton 0–1 (xG 0.81–1.35)
Head-to-head
Burnley 1 · draws 1 · Portsmouth 0, 1.5 goals a game
- 1 Feb 2025 · Portsmouth 0–0 Burnley (Championship)
- 21 Sep 2024 · Burnley 2–1 Portsmouth (Championship)