Lincoln vs Birmingham prediction

12:30

Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 LNER stadium

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 75%Books 74% Best odds 1.32 (Betano)

Match result: no bet

Home win

32%

Bookmakers 28%

Draw

27%

Bookmakers 27%

Away win

40%

Bookmakers 45%

Us 40%Bookmakers 45% Odds too short Uncertainty ±3.9%

Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: only 40% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.

Away win: 40% against a market price of 45% (-4.4%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick

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Lincoln vs Birmingham preview

Lincoln host Birmingham in the Championship on Saturday 31 October at 12:30 at LNER stadium.

Our model gives Lincoln 32%, the draw 27% and Birmingham 40%; the bookmakers' prices said 28%, 27% and 45%.

Lincoln have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 (7 scored, 14 conceded).

Birmingham have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 (10 scored, 3 conceded).

In their last 3 meetings Lincoln won 0, Birmingham won 3 and 0 were drawn, with 2.7 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 75%.

More Championship predictions

All Championship matches

Fri 30 Oct, 20:00 Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham Sheffield Utd win 42% @ 2.60
Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 Norwich vs Watford Norwich win 60% @ 1.60
Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 Stoke City vs Preston Stoke City win 52% @ 1.76
Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Wolves vs Cardiff Wolves win 55% @ 1.66
Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Southampton vs QPR Southampton win 55% @ 1.78
Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Burnley vs Portsmouth Burnley win 44% @ 2.12

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Lincoln

WDLLL

24 Oct · H v Burnley 4–1 (xG 1.94–2.37)
17 Oct · A v Millwall 2–2 (xG 0.75–1.87)
14 Oct · H v West Ham 0–6 (xG 0.39–3.23)
10 Oct · A v Sheffield Utd 0–3 (xG 1.34–0.61)
19 Sep · H v Swansea 1–2 (xG 2.11–0.92)

Birmingham

LWWWD

24 Oct · A v Cardiff 0–1 (xG 0.91–2.40)
17 Oct · H v QPR 3–0 (xG 1.34–1.17)
13 Oct · H v Preston 4–0 (xG 2.24–0.49)
10 Oct · A v West Brom 1–0 (xG 2.60–1.13)
19 Sep · H v Middlesbrough 2–2 (xG 1.23–2.14)

Head-to-head

Lincoln 0 · draws 0 · Birmingham 3, 2.7 goals a game

8 Mar 2025 · Birmingham 1–0 Lincoln (League One)
11 Jan 2025 · Birmingham 2–1 Lincoln (FA Cup)
19 Oct 2024 · Lincoln 1–3 Birmingham (League One)