Millwall vs Derby prediction
Sat 31 Oct, 15:00
The Den
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Corners O/U 8.5Over 8.5 cornersUs 76%Books 79% Best odds 1.26 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
55%
Bookmakers 56%
Draw
25%
Bookmakers 24%
Away win
20%
Bookmakers 19%
Us 55%Bookmakers 56%
Fair price
Uncertainty ±2.0%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 55% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Home win: 55% against a market price of 56% (-1.2%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Millwall vs Derby preview
Millwall host Derby in the Championship on Saturday 31 October at 15:00 at The Den.
Our model gives Millwall 55%, the draw 25% and Derby 20%; the bookmakers' prices said 56%, 24% and 19%.
Millwall have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 (6 scored, 7 conceded).
Derby have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 (4 scored, 8 conceded).
In their last 4 meetings Millwall won 2, Derby won 0 and 2 were drawn, with 1.5 goals a game.
Another call we like: Over 8.5 corners (Corners O/U 8.5) at 76%.
More Championship predictions
All Championship matches- Fri 30 Oct, 20:00 Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham Sheffield Utd win 42% @ 2.60
- Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 Norwich vs Watford Norwich win 60% @ 1.60
- Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 Stoke City vs Preston Stoke City win 52% @ 1.76
- Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 Lincoln vs Birmingham Birmingham win 40% @ 2.15
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Wolves vs Cardiff Wolves win 55% @ 1.66
- Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Southampton vs QPR Southampton win 55% @ 1.78
Form and head-to-head
All competitionsMillwall
LDLWD
- 24 Oct · A v Portsmouth 1–2 (xG 0.73–0.91)
- 17 Oct · H v Lincoln 2–2 (xG 1.87–0.75)
- 13 Oct · H v Swansea 0–1 (xG 1.05–1.82)
- 10 Oct · A v Preston 1–0 (xG 1.15–0.67)
- 19 Sep · H v West Ham 2–2 (xG 2.68–1.87)
Derby
DLLDD
- 24 Oct · A v Sheffield Utd 1–1 (xG 1.15–2.55)
- 17 Oct · H v Stoke City 0–1 (xG 1.07–0.62)
- 14 Oct · A v QPR 1–4 (xG 1.02–2.05)
- 10 Oct · H v Wrexham 1–1 (xG 0.60–1.46)
- 19 Sep · A v Burnley 1–1 (xG 1.75–0.45)
Head-to-head
Millwall 2 · draws 2 · Derby 0, 1.5 goals a game
- 10 Mar 2026 · Millwall 1–0 Derby (Championship)
- 10 Dec 2025 · Derby 1–1 Millwall (Championship)
- 22 Feb 2025 · Derby 0–1 Millwall (Championship)
- 19 Oct 2024 · Millwall 1–1 Derby (Championship)