Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad prediction

20:00

Sun 1 Nov, 20:00 San Mamés Stadium

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 79%Books 79% Best odds 1.25 (Pinnacle)

Match result: no bet

Home win

45%

Bookmakers 45%

Draw

25%

Bookmakers 26%

Away win

30%

Bookmakers 29%

Us 45%Bookmakers 45% Fair price Uncertainty ±2.6%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 45% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +0.1% alone is not enough).

Home win: 45% against a market price of 45% (+0.1%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick

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Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad preview

Athletic Club host Real Sociedad in the La Liga on Sunday 1 November at 20:00 at San Mamés Stadium.

Our model gives Athletic Club 45%, the draw 25% and Real Sociedad 30%; the bookmakers' prices said 45%, 26% and 29%.

Athletic Club have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (6 scored, 4 conceded).

Real Sociedad have 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats from their last 5 (17 scored, 6 conceded).

In their last 6 meetings Athletic Club won 1, Real Sociedad won 3 and 2 were drawn, with 1.7 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 79%.

More La Liga predictions

All La Liga matches

Fri 30 Oct, 20:00 Villarreal vs Espanyol Villarreal win 69% @ 1.46
Sat 31 Oct, 13:00 Levante vs Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid win 57% @ 1.61
Sat 31 Oct, 15:15 Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo Rayo Vallecano win 41% @ 2.45
Sat 31 Oct, 17:30 Real Betis vs Malaga Real Betis win 70% @ 1.38
Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 Barcelona vs Alaves Barcelona win 88% @ 1.12
Sun 1 Nov, 13:00 Getafe vs Sevilla Sevilla win 35% @ 2.60

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Athletic Club

WLDDD

25 Oct · H v Getafe 4–0 (xG 0.77–0.42)
21 Oct · A v Levante 1–3 (xG 1.95–2.05)
17 Oct · A v Valencia 0–0 (xG 0.65–1.49)
19 Sep · H v Alaves 0–0 (xG 1.62–0.05)
12 Sep · H v Elche 1–1 (xG 2.39–0.84)

Real Sociedad

WWWDW

25 Oct · H v Levante 2–1 (xG 2.54–0.70)
22 Oct · A v Lillestrom 6–0 (xG 2.25–1.90)
18 Oct · A v Malaga 5–2 (xG 2.43–1.10)
15 Oct · A v Union St. Gilloise 1–1 (xG 0.76–1.92)
11 Oct · H v Deportivo La Coruna 3–2 (xG 1.44–2.13)

Head-to-head

Athletic Club 1 · draws 2 · Real Sociedad 3, 1.7 goals a game

4 Mar 2026 · Real Sociedad 1–0 Athletic Club (Copa del Rey)
11 Feb 2026 · Athletic Club 0–1 Real Sociedad (Copa del Rey)
1 Feb 2026 · Athletic Club 1–1 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
1 Nov 2025 · Real Sociedad 3–2 Athletic Club (La Liga)
4 May 2025 · Real Sociedad 0–0 Athletic Club (La Liga)
24 Nov 2024 · Athletic Club 1–0 Real Sociedad (La Liga)