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{
  "away": "FC Sochi",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": 0.013,
  "explanation": "Home win: 38% against a market price of 37% (+1.3%).\nExpected goals Rotor Volgograd 1.18 – 0.86 FC Sochi.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±8.4%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nRotor Volgograd's attack (1.16× the league rate) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nFC Sochi's attack (1.16× the league rate) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nRotor Volgograd's defence (0.86× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.3%).",
  "fixture": 1577550,
  "home": "Rotor Volgograd",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "First League",
  "league_api_id": 236,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3697,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-236-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.51",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3827,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}