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{
  "away": "SV Kapfenberg",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0151,
  "explanation": "Home win: 50% against a market price of 51% (-1.5%).\nExpected goals Sturm Graz II 2.07 – 1.82 SV Kapfenberg.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±7.9%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSV Kapfenberg's defence (1.23× the league rate against) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+19% goals at home) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nSturm Graz II's defence (1.19× the league rate against) takes 1.5 pts from home win.\nRest days (Sturm Graz II 8, SV Kapfenberg 9) takes 0.3 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.5%).",
  "fixture": 1567930,
  "home": "Sturm Graz II",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T08:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "2. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 219,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5136,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-219-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.83",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4985,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}