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{
  "away": "Incheon United",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0253,
  "explanation": "Home win: 41% against a market price of 43% (-2.5%).\nExpected goals Gangwon FC 1.08 – 0.98 Incheon United.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 36% (uncertainty ±5.5%), so it carries 35% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nGangwon FC's defence (0.92× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nIncheon United's defence (0.95× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.5%).",
  "fixture": 1507086,
  "home": "Gangwon FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T07:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "K League 1",
  "league_api_id": 292,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4326,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-292-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.18",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4074,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}